Would military strikes kill Iran's nuclear programme

Even the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, does not know where Iran keeps some vital equipment, like parts for centrifuges, the machines that enrich uranium. Israel could take out most of those sites by itself, military experts say, but it would be a risky operation involving repeated attacks and would have to deal with Russian-supplied anti-aircraft systems - although it managed to do so in far more limited strikes on Iran last year. A strike by the United States could probably cause more damage than an Israeli strike, but in either case you're talking about buying time and there's a real risk that it drives Iran toward rather than away from a bomb (Read more at AOL).

US architects of original Iran deal say changed world poses challenges for talks

Richard Nephew, a senior research scholar at Columbia University who was involved in negotiating the original nuclear deal, said the odds of an agreement are “much lower” this time around. “I was the only member of the team who was convinced that we were going to get a deal – basically the entire time, I never went below 50 per cent,” Mr Nephew said, explaining that the previous negotiations had the benefit of starting with a clean slate. “We didn't have years of bad blood having built up, but we do now, and particularly with this president, and in particular with an Iranian system that didn't fully believe that we would commit to a deal in the first place.” (Read more at The National)

Saudi Arabia’s silver lining in the US-China trade war

Trump’s tariffs could give the kingdom the jolt it needs by crashing energy prices and making Chinese exports less competitive. Saudi Arabia and other energy-rich Gulf states could benefit as they become the new safe havens for manufacturers looking to reduce tariff risks. Saudi Arabia should be sending their trade representatives to the Trump administration right now, asking, ‘What was China providing you. Tell us what it is and we will make it in Saudi Arabia and provide a great trade deal (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Will Trump's tariffs make the Middle East's struggling economies competitive

Egypt was hit with just a 10 percent tariff rate, the lowest baseline introduced by the Trump administration. This is absolutely a boost for Egypt’s garment industry. In Trump's world, all Egypt needs to do is be cheaper than Southeast Asia in low-skilled manufacturing. The prime example is the garment industry, which is fairly mobile and requires relatively little up-front investment.

Jordan’s exports to the US have been growing in recent years. Jordan’s tariff rate is not nearly as bad as other countries. US goods imports from Jordan totalled $3.4bn in 2024, up 15 percent from 2023. Countries like Morocco could also pinch new business thanks to Trump's tariffs (Read more at Middle East Eye).

‘Trump’s Major Offensive Fails to Disrupt Ansarallah Operations

According to three congressional and allied officials, the Yemeni movement Ansarallah has reinforced many of its hideouts and strategic sites, making it difficult for US forces to significantly disrupt missile attacks. In just three weeks, the Pentagon has used $200 million worth of munitions, in addition to the immense operational and personnel costs to deploy two aircraft carriers, additional B-2 bombers and fighter jets, as well as Patriot and THAAD air defenses to the Middle East (Read more at Palestine Chronicle).

losers and worse losers of Trump’s tariffs on the Middle East

Algeria, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Syria and Tunisia are hit hard by Washington's sweeping imposition of duties based on trade deficit formula (Read more at Middle East Eye). 

Key dates in Iran's long rivalry with the United States

Relations between Iran and the United States - once strong allies - have often been mistrustful and sometimes openly hostile since Iran's 1979 revolution. Here are some key dates (Read more at MSN)

How Trump's team could've planned the Houthi strikes without Signal

"It's shocking. It's shocking negligence," a former senior defense official said. "We've got the best secure communication systems in the world — of any country — so why are we using a rickety, commercially available system?" A current senior U.S. official told Axios that while many of the participants in the Signal chat have encrypted government-issued phones on which they can discuss classified information, poor reception and other technical problems can make using a personal device easier. "You can drop from the line in the middle of a call," the official said (Read more at Axios).

Top 4 takeaways from Trump Cabinet's explosive leak of Yemen war plans

Vance weighed in to say, "I think we are making a mistake ... I am not sure the president is aware how inconsistent this is with his message on Europe right now," Vance said. Vance's disdain for European political elites isn't just political theater. Here, he argued against strikes that he felt would mainly benefit Europe — and thus should be up to the Europeans to execute (Read more at Axios).

What loss of US aid might mean for Daesh detainee camps in northeast Syria

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces, which helped the US defeat Daesh in 2019, has since then been overseeing Ghuwayran prison, Al-Hol camp and Al-Roj camp, which hold about 56,000 Daesh fighters, their wives and their children. Even with US support, the camps and prisons had been starved of sufficient funding and manpower. “In the worst-case scenario, this could lead to security vulnerabilities that Daesh cells may attempt to exploit, particularly as the group remains active in the Syrian desert and continues efforts to infiltrate” northeastern areas controlled by the autonomous administration (Read more at Arabnews).

What happens to the Middle East if Russia and the US stop being enemies

If the war in Ukraine ends and Trump lifts sanctions on Russia, he could dent some of the Gulf states' economic activity. The United Arab Emirates and Russia were deepening ties before the Biden administration slapped sanctions on Russia. But after that, the UAE became a hub for re-exporting sanctioned goods (Read more at Middle East Eye).

US-Israeli rejection of the Arab Gaza plan is a moment of truth

If the Arab summit’s counter-proposal was intended to assert regional agency over Gaza’s future, the US-Israeli response left little doubt as to who still holds the reins. Will Arab states be able to withstand the relentless push of the American-Israeli agenda, which seeks to shape not just the geography of Gaza, but its very identity and political direction? (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Trump didn't invent the Gaza ethnic cleansing plan. It's been US policy since 2007

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intention from day one of his "revenge" attack on Gaza, launched 16 months ago, was either ethnic cleansing or genocide in Gaza. His ally in genocide for the next 15 months was former US President Joe Biden. His ally in ethnic cleansing is current US President Donald Trump (Read more at Middle East Eye).

How much longer will Arab leaders let Trump and Netanyahu run amok

Any Arab citizen with a shred of personal dignity left must have felt deeply embarrassed upon watching the interaction unfold in the Oval Office on Tuesday, when Trump received King Abdullah of Jordan. To influence the US decision-making process on the Middle East, Arab monarchies must coordinate their strategies and speak with one voice. There is a golden rule to follow when Trump speaks: never take his words at face value. For him, everything and its opposite can be true; we are in a post-truth era. There is thus a thin ray of hope that he does not really mean what he says (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Trump's Gaza stunner builds on his expansionist aims

Since Trump's return to the White House a little more than two weeks ago, his "America First" approach seems to have morphed into "America More," with the president fixated on acquiring new territory even after campaigning on pledges to keep the nation out of foreign entanglements and "forever wars.” He has raised the possibility of the country taking back the Panama Canal, proposed the U.S. wrest Greenland from Denmark and repeatedly suggested that Canada should be absorbed as the 51st U.S. state. Reuters/Ipsos polling shows little public support for these ideas, even in Trump's Republican Party (Read more at Japan Times).

Why Trump's proposal on Gaza is ringing alarm bells in the region

Palestinians have long been haunted by what they call the"Nakba", or catastrophe when 700,000 of them were dispossessed from their homes during the war that surrounded the creation of Israel in 1948 (Read more at AOL).

Trump's first days signal support for the most extreme pro-Israel forces

US president's sanctions reversals, arms shipments and appointment of hawks will likely undermine the ceasefire and empower Israel's hardliners. Figures such as the Christian Zionist extremist and new ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee; new Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth; and nominee for Ambassador to the United Nations, Elise Stefanik, will be pleased to see this largesse extended to their Israeli allies (Read more at Middle East Eye).

A fantastic guy: Trump again welcomes Saudi Arabia's leader. Is that a problem

Watchdog groups contacted by USA TODAY said they’re concerned that the call suggests Trump may seek to exploit his vast new political power and influence to help the Trump Organization and its sprawling business empire (Read more at USA Today)

Trump owns the Gaza ceasefire. But how will he impose it

Israel wants to annex the occupied West Bank and further weaken Iran, but Trump's other priorities may hold those back. Trump’s “stick” to keep Netanyahu in the deal is the same one Biden refused to use during 15 months of war: withholding arms transfers (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Biden to Hand Unfinished Agenda to Trump for Chaotic Mideast

Biden's Middle East record is likely to be remembered not so much for how conflicts ended on his watch but mainly for how they unfolded, seemingly beyond his ability to contain them. "The upside is Biden came to Israel's defense as a reliable ally," said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East adviser to Democratic and Republican administrations. "The downside is he had little success constraining (Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu in Gaza, and that's done serious reputational damage to the U.S." (Read more at USNews).

Jimmy Carter: A Legacy of Peace and Complexity in the Middle East

Carter’s presidency brought the groundbreaking Camp David Accords but faced challenges from Iran’s revolution and the Cold War (Read more at Media Line).

Jimmy Carter: The father of Arab-Israeli normalisation

With the Camp David Accords, the late US president set in motion the gradual abandonment of the Palestinian cause by Arab states (Read more at Aljazeera).

After 23 years, Guantanamo remains an omnipresent threat to Muslims

Emblematic of institutionalised Islamophobia, the detention centre has placed Muslims outside of the law and continues to be used by US authorities to threaten their lives and rights (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Washington Must Address Turks’ Ignorance and Detachment from Reality

This represents a strategic own goal. To invest in a Creole service but ignore a country of nearly 90 million people is national security negligence. Turkey today is among the most anti-American countries on earth; according to the Pew Research Center, Russians have a more positive attitude toward the United States than Turks. Yet neither Democratic nor Republican administrations address the problem by effectively countering Erdoğan’s poisonous, terror-sympathizing, and racist ideology and narratives (Read more at American Enterprise Institute).

Deciphering the web of US sanctions on Syria

the reality is that the sanctions on HTS are a drop in the bucket, compared to an overlapping sanctions regime on Syria that was five decades in the making, predating even the 2011 Arab Spring and Syrian civil war. American exports to Syria were all but prohibited, except for food and basic medicines. US sanctions on Syria ramped up massively after Assad's brutal crackdown on protesters and as the civil war raged. In 2020, a US company was awarded a sanctions waiver to develop oil fields in the region, but that project withered. (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Trump World Has Trust Issues With Qatar

To put it very simply, Qatar is willing to be (almost) everyone’s friend. It hosts Hamas and Taliban representatives along with a U.S. embassy and a U.S. military base, while even Israeli officials stop by now and then. Qatar’s open-door policy has made it a go-to mediator in many of the world’s conflicts; indeed, mediation is a pillar of Qatar’s foreign policy, giving it outsized influence. But that approach also has left Qatar open to questions in the U.S., Israel and beyond about whether it is truly a friend to anyone. Some argue the U.S. shouldn’t depend on Qatar as a partner or an intermediary (Read more at Politico).

Trump’s Opportunity to Redefine U.S.-Qatar Relations

The initial diplomatic signals from President-elect Trump’s team suggest a shift, with reports indicating a call for Qatar to reinstate Hamas leaders to Doha. This starkly contrasts with recent moves by the Biden administration, which pressured Qatar to distance itself from Hamas. The Trump administration must address Qatar’s international positioning. As host of the 2025 U.N. anti-corruption summit, Qatar has portrayed itself as a global leader in combating corruption. The administration should challenge this narrative by ensuring accountability for Doha’s domestic and international actions. For Trump, the path forward is clear: Qatar must earn its privileges as a U.S. ally. A failure to reset the relationship would allow Qatar to continue benefiting from U.S. trust while undermining shared values and priorities (Read more at ASEAN News).

Assad's downfall is a big win for Trump, but if it could be fatal

When, in January, Donald Trump is sworn in for his second, and final, term as president of the United States, he will find the Middle East undergoing tectonic geopolitical shifts that his Israel-firsters and neocon supporters could not have imagined, even in their wildest dreams. Trump must seize this opportunity and accept that lasting peace in the Middle East can only be achieved through a comprehensive approach that leaves nobody behind (Read more at Middle East Eye). 

What Trump's plans to 'finish the job' could mean for Gaza, Iran and beyond

If he is urging Israel to “finish the job” meaning the continued killing of Palestinians and raze what is left of Gaza to the ground, then Israel is definitely complying. Could "finish the job" also mean crossing borders into Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah, Iran's key paramilitary ally in the region? Well, a fragile ceasefire is in place in Lebanon with Hezbollah, and Iran is considerably weakened. In comments made to Israeli media in November, Trump advisor and evangelical leader Mike Evans said the directive to "finish the job" included instructions for Israel to attack Iran's oil facilities and strategic interests (Read more at TRTWorld).

Talk of a Hamas-Israel Cease-fire Still Premature

Trump wants Netanyahu to make a deal, but experts say the compromises needed to reach a deal with Hamas might bring an end to the Netanyahu government. It is hard to tell whether Netanyahu is a prisoner of Ben-Gvir and Smotrich like many say or that he himself shares their ideas. Hamas is trying to survive, to stop the war in order to not cease [existing] as an organization. If Trump demands the end of the war in Gaza, it will entail steps, such as the release of Palestinian prisoners, that cannot be accepted by the current government. This will lead to an election in Israel, which could be something Trump actually wants (Read more at Media Line).

The diplomatic push that took Lebanon from Armageddon to ceasefire

With Hochstein shuttling between the countries, meeting Israeli negotiators under Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and reporting back daily to U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, France was also in the picture. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot visited the region in early November at Israel's request despite tensions between the countries. He held long talks with Dermer on the mechanics of a ceasefire with a phased approach to redeployments, with the two delegations poring over maps, two sources aware of the matter said. As things worsened for Lebanon, there was frustration at the pace of talks. "(Hochstein) told us he needed 10 days to get to a ceasefire but the Israelis dragged it out to a month to finish up military operations," a Lebanese official said (Read more at Reuters).

Trump’s Mideast team: A familiar look for a transformed region

When President-elect Donald Trump named a Middle East team for his second term, it struck some as a bit of déjà vu. The team includes a real estate mogul with no diplomatic experience, a conservative religious leader who views Israel in messianic terms, and an Israel hawk relishing the prospect of taking on the international community. It suggests he liked what he got out of the first team and wants the same, only more and bigger, from this one.” (Read more at CSMonitor)

Trump’s effect on the Middle East

Trump is already shaping the calculations of combatants in the Middle East and in Europe, as they seek to guess what he’ll want once back in the White House, jockeying to find favor beforehand. “His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated. I’m glad to see concrete steps towards de-escalation in the Middle East,” Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for national security adviser said (Read more at Politico).

The real estate investor who sealed the Gaza ceasefire

Trump's Middle East envoy epitomises the president-elect's disdain for policy wonks and international relations experts. With Trump saying he will use the hostage deal to expand the 2020 Abraham Accord agreements, Witkoff is likely set to delve deeper into the world of Gulf politics and the Israel-Palestine conflict (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Attempts to reach US-Saudi deal part of struggle for the world order

Fresh attempts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to reach a defense pact are part of a wider effort to reshape regional and global dynamics, and to degrade Iran's influence, according to observers in Israel (Read more at JNS).

Peace through strength: A look into Trump’s Iran policy

“If we look at the recent appointments the president has made, none of them are isolationists and almost all of them have publicly condemned the Iranian terror regime in the strongest possible terms,” said Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs (Read more at JNS).

What have Trump administration nominees said about Israel and its wars

While pro-Israel views are common in US politics, Trump’s picks signal support for far-right Israeli aspirations. During the final weeks of the 2024 United States presidential race, former President Donald Trump spoke with sympathy to Arab American and Muslim voters enraged by the country’s support for Israel’s wars in Gaza and Lebanon. But following a thumping victory at the polls, Trump is preparing to return to the White House with a coterie of some of the Republican Party’s most vehemently pro-Israel figures (Read more at Aljazeera).

How do Palestinians perceive a new Trump presidency

Although the previous administration of US President-elect Donald Trump was seen as a staunch ally of Israel, Varsen Aghabekian Shahin, Palestine’s minister of state for foreign affairs and expatriates, says Palestinians remain hopeful about his return to the White House (Read more at Arabnews).

The real estate investor who sealed the Gaza ceasefire

Trump's Middle East envoy epitomises the president-elect's disdain for policy wonks and international relations experts. Witkoff doesn’t speak much in public, but when he does, he is measured and deliberate. Appearing on Fox News in January, he said Trump’s “strong stance, his certitude in asserting that ‘all hell would break loose’ is moving people”, when asked about the ceasefire talks.  With Trump saying he will use the hostage deal to expand the 2020 Abraham Accord agreements, Witkoff is likely set to delve deeper into the world of Gulf politics and the Israel-Palestine conflict (Read more at Middle East Eye).

What to Expect From Trump's Middle East Policy

The choices for key foreign policy and national security roles so far suggest a preference for an activist US policy in the region rather than an isolationist approach. However, it should not be ruled out that future US policy may still retain notable isolationist elements, driven in part by Trump’s own reluctance toward troop deployments and foreign interventions. All things considered, Trump’s victory appears to shift regional power dynamics in favor of Israel and Gulf countries and put Iran in a disadvantageous position (Read more at Foreign Policy Research Institute).

Trump sends conflicting signals on Iran

The meeting between Elon Musk and Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations , if confirmed, could offer an early indication that Trump is not foreclosing the option of diplomacy with Iran. It would also show again the extraordinary influence of Musk, the owner of Tesla and X who has been a near constant presence at Trump’s side, reportedly joining him on telephone calls with world leaders (Read more at Arab Weekly).

Will Biden take a parting shot at Israel

With two months left until President-elect Trump's inauguration, some Israelis are worried that President Joe Biden will replicate President Barack Obama’s actions before leaving office. Before leaving office at the end of his second term, Obama allowed the passage of U.N. Resolution 2334 declaring Judaism’s holiest site “occupied Palestinian territory” (Read more at JNS).

Muslims supported Trump, Jews backed Harris

While Muslims are familiar with Trump’s harsh rhetoric, they also recognize one unpredictable factor: perhaps, in a sudden move, Trump might end the war. This partial belief in Trump’s potential actions has led some Muslims to lean more toward his side. A think tank study in the U.S. found that 75%-80% of Muslims voted for Trump, while 75%-80% of Jewish voters supported the Democrats. In a sense, the Democratic Party, AIPAC and Jews lost (Read more at Daily Sabah). 

Erdogan’s ‘friend’ Trump played role in strained Turkey-U.S. ties

President Tayyip Erdogan called Donald Trump a “friend” in welcoming his return to the White House. Here are some of the rifts between Washington and Ankara: defence, sanctions, NATO, Syria, the pastor and the lira crash, Turkey-Russia ties (Read more at Swissinfo).

What Ties Do Trump And His Allies Have With Oil-Wealthy Gulf States

Since leaving office in 2021, former President Donald Trump and several of his close allies have maintained a prominent presence in the oil-rich Gulf states. One of the most significant developments in Trump’s ongoing relationship with Gulf leaders came in September, when he hosted Qatar’s ruling emir and the president of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and a key advisor during his time in office, has remained heavily involved in U.S.-Saudi relations. The Trump Organization has continued to explore new business opportunities in the Gulf region. Several other prominent figures from the Trump administration have maintained close business ties with Gulf nations (Read more at NewsX).

How will American-Israelis vote

The political breakdown among Jewish respondents in Israel revealed that 90% of right-wing voters and 52% of centrists believe Trump would be more beneficial for Israel, while the left favors Harris over Trump, 42% versus 29% (Read more at JNS).

Where Harris and Trump Stand on Israel, Gaza

In an effort to engage with “leaders of the Arab-American community,” Harris headed to Michigan, a key swing state that is home to more than 200,000 Arab American voters. There, she pledged to do “everything in her power to end the war”. While acknowledging the “suffering in Gaza”, she reiterated, once again, that she must “ensure Israel is secure”.  Trump has consistently prioritized ‘security’ concerns over humanitarian considerations and repeatedly affirmed that Israel should seek a swift victory. Moreover, Trump has frequently voiced skepticism about the two-state solution, suggesting that achieving peace might be difficult under this framework (Read more at Palestine Chronicle). 

Gaza haunts US election

While Muslim community leaders who have requested meetings with the Vice President say they have been snubbed, at a rally in Michigan on Sunday Trump was endorsed by several Muslim figures who appeared on stage with the Republican candidate. Anxiety in the Harris campaign over the Arab-American vote appears to be more justified, and is compounded, say observers, by her failure to make any meaningful pledges to end the war. They appear to have miscalculated the level of anger and disappointment at the Biden administration’s support for a war that has bombed Gaza to the stone age and killed six per cent of its population (Read more at Alahram).

Does Riyadh prefer Trump or Harris

Saudi commentator Ali Shihabi says Kingdom does not have a favorite but is looking to work closely with whichever candidate wins to help resolve the Middle East conflict. Shihabi said Saudi Arabia may have historically leaned more toward the Republican Party, but the situation is different this time around, as in recent years the Kingdom’s relationship with the Democrats has vastly improved (Read more at Arabnews).

How the next U.S. president could change the course of Israel’s wars

The elections are already making a difference in Israel’s calculations. Senior Biden administration officials have stepped up efforts in recent days to resolve the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza — which would bring a boost to Vice President Harris in her election bid — but Israeli analysts say Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is waiting to see who is voted into the White House. If Palestinians and Israelis do not really make a headway on it, it's very difficult to imagine that there will be a U.S. administration that would come to fix things for both sides. But Harris would pursue a “smarter conflict management kind of policy. In Gaza and Lebanon, Israeli analysts predict Trump would give Netanyahu a freer hand, while Israel would need to make more compromises under Harris (Read more at NPR).

Iran braces for Trump victory, fearing more Israeli strikes, Western sanctions

Iran faces diminished leverage if Trump wins Nov. 5 US election. Trump could grant Israel green light to hit Iran nuclear sites. Possible US-Saudi defence pact to shift balance of power. Tehran recognises 'new architecture' in making in Middle East. Iran's accelerated nuclear enrichment programme raising alarm (Read more at Reuters).

How Biden Pushed Israel to Calibrate Its Strikes on Iran

The first move by Biden's administration was to acknowledge that Iran would have to pay for the Oct. 1 attack, officials say. U.S. officials worked to present an alternative option that included a set of different measures: Washington worked to impose oil sanctions targeting Iran's so-called "Ghost Fleet" to offer an alternative measure to the Israelis who wanted to damage Iran's oil revenues with a kinetic strike. Moreover, the United States worked to bolster Israel's air defenses ahead of its Saturday strike on Iran. Before deploying the system, the United States wanted to know Israel's attack plans (Read more at USNews).

The 41-year-old lessons of the 1983 U.S. Marines barracks bombing in Beirut

Americans should reflect on how the United States got ensnared in an earlier Israeli war there, and a tragic result of that involvement that occurred 41 years ago this week. Israel invaded Lebanon in 1982, which was the beginning of an occupation that would not end completely until 2000. One of the most horrifying low points was the massacre in September 1982 at the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps. The Israel Defense Forces, fired illuminating flares so that the killing could continue through the night. A couple of weeks earlier, the United States under the Reagan administration had agreed to deploy US Marines. At least on the face of it, this deployment had a noble peacekeeping mission (Read more at New Arab).

After Sinwar's death, Israel aims to lock in strategic gains before US election

Israeli leaders are seeking to lock in strategic gains that go beyond military victories – to reshape the regional landscape in Israel's favour and shield its borders from any future attacks. By intensifying its military operations against Hezbollah and Hamas, Israel wants to ensure that its enemies and their chief patron, Iran, don't regroup and threaten Israeli citizens again (Read more at Business Standard).

After Sinwar death, Biden faces big obstacles to Gaza peace

Joe Biden is expected to use Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to wind down the war in Gaza, but in the waning months of his term the U.S. president may lack leverage to bend the Israeli leader to his will (Read more at AOL).

Biden offers both a carrot and a stick to Israel as his term nears an end

In his final months in office, President Joe Biden is signaling new willingness to use U.S. military assistance to Israel as both a carrot and a stick to influence its high-stakes confrontation with Iran and Iran-backed militant groups. The 30 days Biden has given Israel to comply with its demands will run out after the Nov. 5 U.S. election, giving Netanyahu the ability to decide how fully he should comply, especially if the Republican candidate with whom he is close, former President Donald Trump, defeats the Democrat, Vice President Kamala Harris (Read more at Reuters).

At 10-year mark, US and allies weigh future of Islamic State mission

Ten years to the day after the formal launch of the U.S.-led operation against the Islamic State, the United States and its NATO allies gathered in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the future of a mission facing increasing headwinds. Niger kicked out the U.S. military from its counter-terrorism base in West Africa this summer. Afghanistan has been largely off-limits since the Taliban's 2021 takeover. And Iraq wants the Pentagon to start reducing its personnel and end coalition operations there (Read more at MSN).

Biden's Israel Deployment a Stark Reminder as Election Looms

President Joe Biden’s decision to send an advanced missile defense system to Israel – and the roughly 100 U.S. soldiers needed to operate it – serves as a reminder that the 2024 race might turn on the economy, abortion and immigration. But the winner will be commander in chief. The latest deployment is a deeply political act, an expression of national will that comes with the danger that service personnel could come under deadly fire in an escalating Middle East conflict (Read more at USNews).

Caught between competing goals in Lebanon, US stays on the sidelines

After weeks of intensive diplomacy aimed at securing a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah militants, the United States has settled on an altogether different approach: let the unfolding conflict in Lebanon play out. For the U.S. the Israeli campaign could bring at least two benefits. First, weakening Hezbollah could curb Tehran's influence in the region and lower the threat to Israel and to U.S. forces. Washington also believes that military pressure could force Hezbollah to put down arms and pave the way for the election of a new government in Lebanon that would oust the powerful militia movement, which has been a significant player in Lebanon for decades. Jonathan Lord, a former Pentagon official now with the Center for a New American Security in Washington, said that would be hard to achieve (Read more at Reuters).

Biden's big Middle East fear comes true

President Biden has spent nearly a year plotting and praying he could help prevent the war in Gaza from spreading. The rapidly expanding conflict between Israel and Hezbollah signals his power has reached its limit (Read more at Axios).

Trapped in contradictions in the Middle East

For the last three months, the Biden administration has been caught between its interest in de-escalating the situation in the Middle East through a ceasefire deal in Gaza and an obstinate Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is not interested in bringing this unjust war to an end (Read more at Al Ahram).

Twenty-three years after 9/11, Muslim victims of US violence deserve justice

Muslims targeted in the war on terror have found no mechanism to address crimes perpetrated against them, much less any frame that acknowledges their victimisation. If someone is killed by the US in a combat zone - US laws effectively preclude noncitizens from the eligibility to make a claim or receive any compensation for wrongful deaths that occur outside of the country. In rare cases where the US military kills civilians, a commander can opt to pay what are called solatia or condolence payments. These payments are not only minuscule - ranging from a few hundred to a few thousand dollars - but they are also expressly made without the military acknowledging any wrongdoing (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Why the Trump-Harris debate is not likely to sway undecided Arab American voters

Trump accused Harris of being weak on foreign policy and of hating Israel and Arabs. He offered no specific solutions for the Israel-Hamas conflict, however, instead claiming the war in Gaza would not have happened under his leadership. Trump added, Harris hates Arabs, claiming that “the whole place (the Middle East) is going to get blown up.” Harris affirmed her support for Israel’s right to defend itself against Iran and its proxies, while acknowledging the heavy civilian toll on Palestinians in Gaza. Gaza, however, may not be a deciding issue in the election, even among Arab Americans (Read more at Arabnews).

Biden team, election in mind, keeps hope on Gaza truce

A breakthrough could offer a major boost, a vaunted “October surprise”, to Biden’s heir Kamala Harris in the razor-thin race against Donald Trump for the White House. Polling shows that Harris has more to gain than lose from a tougher stand on Israel, while the reverse is true for Trump. The Biden administration is striving for another prize ahead of the November election: Israeli-Saudi normalisation. But calm in Gaza is a prerequisite (Read more at Arab Weekly).

US and allies fail to stem Houthis' high pace of Red Sea attacks

Today, 500 hours of flight would cost $20,000,000, at $40,000 per hour. Add submarine deployments and other assets that could be used to counter other US adversaries, such as satellite reconnaissance, and even action short of war costs billions. So, if it’s international shipping, it should be everybody's job (Read more at The National).

Why US-led Gaza truce talks are doomed to fail

The problem that has been dogging any breakthrough is a lack of trust. This is largely because America cannot be a strong ally with Israel and at the same time an honest broker. Any proposal that leaves out an end to the war and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza will ultimately be rejected. If the members of the UNSC are serious about wanting an end to the war, they can simply pass a resolution that details steps to this end and that does not include any vague wording about allowing the Israeli army to stay in Gaza (Read more at Arabnew). 

US withdrawal from Iraq isn’t as simple as it looks

Writing from America, I can tell you that the US military presence in Iraq rarely makes headlines. Furthermore, there has been no meaningful debate about America’s presence in Iraq during the US presidential campaign. With all the factors in mind, it’s clear that a US withdrawal from Iraq in a realistic timeframe will not occur soon. It is in the interest of both sides that the US-Iraq military relationship evolves into a more traditional security partnership (Read more at Arabnews).

Time for US to end its ambiguity on Israel-Palestine

Constructive ambiguity is not a strategy. It is a mechanism to bypass awkward moments. The US markets a ceasefire deal without a ceasefire. Instead of an end to hostilities by all sides, it simply proposes a hostage-prisoner exchange during a pause in Israeli bombardment (Read more at Arabnews).

Omar and Ocasio-Cortez have grown distant over Palestine’s liberation

Ocasio-Cortez claimed that the vice president is “working tirelessly to secure a ceasefire in Gaza”. Soon afterwards, fellow Squad member Ilhan Omar of Minnesota ripped into Ocasio-Cortez (Read more at TRTWorld).

Why I am not voting for Kamala Harris

If the party’s presidential candidate, Kamala Harris, does not change her policy on Israel, I will not be casting a ballot for her and I will not be the only one. More than 700,000 Americans have cast an “uncommitted” vote in the Democratic primaries (Read more at Aljazeera).

Washington’s ad hoc Saudi policy

The administration of US President Joe Biden has in fact come full circle in its cycle of strategic confusion in the Middle East (Read more at Arab Weekly). 

AIPAC is growing desperate

While AIPAC’s funding of Bush’s and Bowman’s defeats in Missouri and New York demonstrate the pro-Israeli lobby’s power and resources, they also show that it must now provide ever greater sums of cash to keep Congress Israel-friendly and minimise the impact of progressive members (Read more at Aljazeera).

Like her predecessors, Kamala Harris is fully on board with Israel's genocide

Harris' weak statements of 'concern' over Palestinian suffering in Gaza pale in comparison to her 'ironclad' support for Tel Aviv. The American political landscape is trapped between thuggish imperialism abroad and militant fascism at home on one side and liberal imperialism abroad and semi-sane domestic policies at home on the other (Read more at Middle East Eye).

US don’t seem to have a plan B, not thrilled with Israel’s actions

The Biden administration is clinging to the stubbornly elusive goal of a cease-fire deal to end the fighting in Gaza. It has important effects on other areas where you could see conflict — whether it’s in the north of Israel and Lebanon, whether it’s Iran, whether it’s in the Red Sea with the Houthis. Israel in particular decided that the only way to eventually calm Gaza is through more fighting now. You have a situation where each of the parties believes that in order to deter the other, they have to climb the ladder (Read more at Politico).

‘Major contradiction’ from the US and Israel on latest truce proposal

“There’s a major contradiction here and the fact that both the US and the Israeli side have said on the one hand, that they don’t want a future in Gaza in which Hamas has any kind of political role left. “At the same time, this is an agreement that would have to be reached through negotiations with Hamas, so, how do you do that? How do you eliminate them as a political force and at the same time reach a negotiated solution that is agreed upon by all parties?” (Read more at Aljazeera)

Understanding US version of ‘red line’ in backdrop of Israel’s war on Gaza

When it comes to red lines, the US has one rule for its enemies and another for its allies and clients. One of the most infamous historical examples of red lines was seen in the lead up to the 2003 US-led invasion and another example of red lines came with former US President Barack Obama’s warning to the Assad regime against use of chemical weapons in Syria. Needless to say, Israel was true to its word in ignoring Biden’s feeble and non-credible red line warning as it launched a major military operation on Rafah (Read more at TRT World).

The limits of the Biden-Netanyahu ‘dispute’

A few factors may have encouraged the American president to take the risk of to suspending “advanced weapons” to Israel at this time: First is the willingness of Republican politicians to outbid him. No matter how excessive President Biden’s defense of Israel becomes; Secondly, the student uprisings on university campuses all across the US, from coast to coast, have challenged the stagnation; Thirdly, the Israeli far-right's brazen and racist speeches have alienated all neutral or moderate observers (Read more at Arabnews).

A history of U.S. presidents drawing red lines with Israel

During the Suez Crisis of the 1950s, then-President Dwight Eisenhower leveraged the threat of sanctions to convince Israel to withdraw from the Sinai Peninsula - In 1983, Reagan reaffirmed that he would not send F-16 jets to Israel until Israel withdrew its forces from Lebanon - In 1992, the Bush administration threatened to withhold the delivery of $10 billion in loan guarantees to Israel if it continued building settlements in the occupied West Bank and Gaza (Read more at Axios).

How US Big Tech supports Israel’s AI-powered genocide and apartheid

Israeli army is using a new AI-powered system, such as “Lavender” and “The Gospel” to decide on targets for its bombardment of Gaza. Israeli forces use Google Photos facial recognition service to scan the faces of Palestinians across Gaza for its dystopian “hit list” (Read more at Aljazeera).

The Gaza 'aid pier': a US geopolitical ploy

It is a strategic maneuver aimed at consolidating US and Israeli control over land and sea. Once the goods are offloaded at the pier, they still need to be transported across Gaza to reach the populations in need. The Netzarim Corridor’s checkpoints, also known as Route 749, could become bottlenecks for these deliveries (Read more at The Cradle).

US ‘unwilling’ to push Israel to halt Rafah invasion

Analysts also point to wider attempts by the US to integrate Israel with the wider region fully as not having aided the Palestinian push for liberation and Statehood (Read more at TRTWorld).

Debunking three myths about pro-Palestine student protests in the US

First it is not violent. The takeover of the respective halls comes in the footsteps of students from previous generations at both Columbia and Princeton who opposed the Vietnam War or the apartheid regime in South Africa. Second Jewish students have not been harassed. Third, whereas some students have remained steadfast to the demands of disclosure and divestment, others have been open to various compromises (Read more at Middle East Eye).

Pro-Palestinian protests aren't going to leave Biden unscathed

Comparisons are being made to the 1968 anti-Vietnam War protests and the role they played in costing Democrats the presidency. Through it all, the Biden White House has demonstrated only limited concern, apparently convinced that they’ll weather this storm. Should the war continue, many young voters will be hard-pressed to vote for Mr Biden. They won’t vote for Mr Trump. Most likely they’ll either vote for a third party or not at all (Read more at The National).

What student protests say about US politics, Israel support

Experts say growing protest movement on university campuses could help shift US policy on Israel in the long term. It could also threaten the bipartisan backing that Israel enjoys in Washington. We’re already seeing evidence of a generation divide on Israel, and that is going to be a long-term issue for the Democratic Party (Read more at Aljazeera).

Can Israel embrace America’s vision of a new Middle East

US has a formal vision of a deal between Israel and the leading power in the Arab and Muslim world, Saudi Arabia.The Saudis share Israel’s concerns about the Iranians and their regional proxy armies. Last weekend’s coordinated response to the Iranian attack will also have brought home the potential benefits to Saudi Arabia. A more formal U.S. security guarantee and access to top-of-the-line American warplanes are also major attractions for the Saudis in a deal with Israel (Read more at CSMonitor).

Biden and Netanyahu: United in goal, divided by strategy

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's execution of these objectives is undermining the US soft power elsewhere in the region. For Israel, the stakes in the ongoing war are significantly higher than for the US because Tel Aviv’s top brass widely views it as an existential threat. Faced with limited alternatives, Netanyahu opts for confrontation, banking on enduring until the upcoming US elections in November (Read more at The Cradle).

Biden Is Dreaming Like It’s 1918, but Israel Is Fighting Like It’s 1945

In 1918, the United States and its allies sought a German surrender that would neutralize its war-making capabilities without having to transform its state and society. A true solution to what contemporaries called the “German question” came only after World War II, when America and its allies demanded unconditional surrender from Hitler, occupied Germany and de-Nazified its institutions (Read more at NewYork Post). 

Does US deterrence work against Houthis? Yes and no

For more than six weeks, there have been no attacks by Iran-allied militias against U.S. forces in Iraq or Syria. What really shook them up was the targeted killing of the logistics commander in Baghdad. The strike, he says, was proof of exceptionally precise locational intelligence. There are definitely calls for targeted strikes on Houthi leaders in Washington. The U.S. Air Force can do more damage in one hour than the Saudi Air Force can do in eight years (Read more CSMonitor).

To woo Washington, Erdogan will sell out Palestine

Although a Washington–Ankara rapprochement is still in its nascent stage, recent developments reveal the old allies are on a positive trajectory to repair bilateral relations after a period of strained diplomatic ties. While the Turkish president is stepping up anti-Zionist rhetoric on his domestic front, his administration maintains substantial economic ties with Israel. It makes clear Turkiye's shift toward prioritizing strategic interests over ideological ones (Read more at The Cradle).

US floating port in Gaza might serve important purpose

This sea route will be the first passage in or out of Gaza in more than 75 years not controlled by either Israel or Egypt. That also opens a window of opportunity for establishing links with an EU member state and, potentially, trade ties with the rest of this powerful economic and political union. It is a clear sign that the Biden administration is recognizing and internalizing the need to take a different approach to the war (Read more at Arabnews).

Chuck Schumer's anti-Netanyahu speech embolden the Israeli PM

Some have called into question whether its impact could boomerang into a boost for Mr Netanyahu's far-right coalition as it continues to wage war in Gaza. Benny Gantz, a political rival of Mr Netanyahu, said the US senator had “erred in his remarks” and that “external intervention” was “counterproductive and unacceptable.” (Read more at The National)

U.S. is Losing in Lebanon

The U.S., France, and others have recently floated plans that would rely on the LAF and UNFIL to take a greater role in southern Lebanon. Yet more of the same is not the answer. The United States must acknowledge reality: its Lebanon policy is failing. And the dire consequences are coming into view (Read more at Providence).

US de-escalation Will Not Solve the Houthi Problem

Rather than aim to “de-escalate”—the aim should be for “stability”— a return to peace on just terms. And for decades, maintaining the peace has required the United States’ ability and will to escalate. The United States has the might to crush the Houthis. The United States can convince Iran to end these terror attacks against civilian international shipping (Read more at Providence).

US proxies fear 'Afghanistan-style' withdrawal from Syria

The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) fear their US patrons will abandon them in favor of closer relations with Turkiye. Turkiye has escalated its airstrikes on areas in northeast Syria occupied by the SDF in recent months. SDF would simply have to cut a deal with Damascus if the US pulls out, returning northeast Syria and its oil and wheat resources to Syrian government control (Read more at The Cradle).

Biden is hardly the only US president to have failed the Arab world

Since the end of the Vietnam War, every US presidency has been shaped by conflict in the Middle East and viewed it solely through the lens of Israel. Donald Trump accepted Israel’s annexation of “East Jerusalem” and the Golan Heights. This led some Arab states to move to establish ties with Israel in an effort to forestall further moves towards annexation. Israel, emboldened by its support from Washington, remained intransigent (Read more at The National).

US airdrops in Gaza expose limit to Biden’s Israel policy

The US normally does airdrops in hostile environments, not in areas occupied by allies. The move to drop aid from the skies signals Biden can’t persuade Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do more for suffering Palestinians. The U.S. has many ways to influence Israeli actions, not least of which is to consider conditioning military aid for the country (Read more at Politico).

Here’s what uncoordinated US withdrawal from Syria means for Trukey

It’s bad for many partners, but especially Turkey. While Ankara may favor a future US withdrawal from Syria, it desires US coordination. An uncoordinated withdrawal leaves the country alone against Tehran, Moscow, Damascus, and the YPG. They would probably aim to expel Turkey from Syria (Read more at Atlantic Council).

Can Biden coax Israelis out of trauma toward regional peace

Even longtime supporters of a two-state peace, and opponents of Mr. Netanyahu, appear unready or unable to look beyond their own pain, the fate of the hostages still in Gaza, and the need to hit back hard in response to the Hamas attack. In these circumstances, Washington’s main task will be getting them even to listen (Read more at CSMonitor).

‘Hell for us’: Why Yemenis fear the US Houthi ‘terrorist’ designation

But it’s not the Houthis who will face the worst of the effects of the designation. The Houthis being placed back on the US “terror” list will cut off the flow of humanitarian to the country (Read more at Aljazeera).

Can the F-16 Deal Revive the Turkish-American Partnership

Various geopolitical disruptions can remind both sides of the added value they generate from working in harmony. The US withdraw from Afghanistan is one such example, where Türkiye and the United States quickly saw merit in cooperating to boost security at the Kabul airport. The war in Ukraine is another example ranging from the grain deal to Black Sea security. The same could happen in the context of the war in Gaza (Read more at Carnegie).

A Message to Joe Biden: A Palestinian State Must Be Based on These Three Pillars

Territory cannot be acquired by force, the far right in Israel must be shunned, and there must be genuine reform of the Palestinian National Council (Read more at Carnegie).

Turkey, the United States, and the Israel-Hamas War

The onset of the conflict in Gaza has further estranged Erdogan from Washington. He reacted indignantly to the U.S. deployment of two aircraft carrier strike groups to the Eastern Mediterranean and suggested that the United States has no business sending the carriers or playing a role in this conflict (Read more at CFR).